Showing posts with label exporting companies. Show all posts
Showing posts with label exporting companies. Show all posts

Monday, 11 March 2013

New party Anti Euro Party in Germany



Opponents of the euro in Germany have founded a new party in favor of abolishing Europe's common currency. But critics question whether the rather academic group can pack the populist punch it needs to enter parliament.
"The Alternative for Germany" - Germany's new party opposing the eurozone - is unlikely to impress Angela Merkel. The German chancellor takes pride in her policy aimed at saving Europe's monetary union. "The end of the euro would also be the end of the European Union," she has said - justification in her view for why the monetary union must be sustained.
But there is a substantial group within Germany that disagrees. In a survey conducted by the Germany weekly news magazine "Der Spiegel" in July 2012, 54 percent of interviewees said they don't believe investing vast sums of money to keep the common European currency is really worth it.
Opposition to the common currency in not reflected in the German parliament at all, says Konrad Adam. For years, he was a journalist at the center-right German daily "Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung," and has decided to start the new political party together with a handful of business experts who have worked in media and research.
The group, which calls itself Alternative for Germany, demands the dissolution of the eurozone and an open discussion of bailout strategies.
The euro is ‘destroying Europe'
Adam is frustrated about the lack of representation for euro opponents in parliament.
Konrad Adam
(c) picture-alliance/Markus C. Hurek Konrad Adam, founder of Alternative for Germany
“All of the parties in the Bundestag have effectively the same opinion when it comes to rescuing the euro,” he told DW. “The only distinction between them is how much money should be invested and when. The euro is seen as holy, and anyone with a differing opinion is either dismissed as a populist or is shamed. That is not right.”
That's what led Adam to band together with like-minded journalists and scholars, such as Bernd Lucke, who teaches economics at the University of Hamburg, to start their own party.
“When I go to vote, I want a choice, which is why we wanted to create an alternative,” Adam said.
The issue isn't exactly minor in the German political arena. Germany must contribute 21.7 billion euros ($28.2 billion) to the euro rescue fund, which is meant to prevent EU countries with financial problems from slipping into bankruptcy by providing such countries with favorable lending conditions. So far, Greece, Ireland, Portugal, Spain and Cyprus have tapped into the fund.
According to the founders of Alternative for Germany, the possibility of getting rid of the euro and stopping the payments is being ignored by German politicians. They believe the end to the common currency to be the best thing that could happen to Europe.
“We are afraid that Europe isn't benefitting from the euro, but is actually being subtly destroyed by it,” Lucke told DW.
Dissolving the eurozone, not the EU
A syrgine with a euro note in it
(c) imago Germany has pumped over 20 billion euros into rescue funds
Lucke clarifies however that while the party is against the euro, it is not against European unity. The party focuses on getting rid of the eurozone. They call for the countries to either choose between national currencies, such as the deutschmark, the franc, or the drachma, or to create smaller currency unions. Adam could envision a northern euro and a southern euro, for example
The founders of Alternative for Germany don't want to get too specific with such proposals at the moment. While they support the principle of adherence to EU treaties, the group's members also hope to see changes to EU treaties that would allow Germany and other countries legal means of exiting the eurozone. Further, the new party is calling for binding referendums that would give EU citizens more power to make decisions.
A decision on whether the party fulfils the criteria to take part in Germany's federal elections this September is expected in April. At the very latest, the party's leaders hope to take part in the European elections in 2014.
A 'dangerous' position?
Rudolf Hickel, an economist and former head of the Institute of Labor and Economics (IAW) at the University of Bremen, considers Alternative for Germany's chances for success in September's elections to be slim.
Rudolf Hickel
(c) Universität Bremen Rudolf Hickel believes calls to dissolvr the eurozone are 'dangerous'
“Normally, I'd certainly give a party like this a chance to reach five percent,” Hickel told DW, referring to the law in Germany that a political party must win at least five percent of the vote to gain parliamentary representation. “But the people behind Alternative for Germany are the best guarantee that the party won't make it into the Bundestag. They are professors and frustrated economists. If the party were headed by a populist, I'd consider them dangerous.”
Hickel does welcome an open debate about the euro rescue mechanisms, but he considers abandoning the currency bloc to be very dangerous.
“If Greece, for example, was out of the euro, it would be a permanently poor country, but would remain in the European Union,” Hickel explains. “And I can say now that, in that case, the EU would have to help with payments, or pressure would mount on Greece until it left the European Union. Then other EU countries would have to pay more. That would be an extreme burden on the European project."
That's where the founders of Alternative for Germany disagree. The party believes Germany's political elite must stop clinging to the joint currency without paying more attention to the sacrifices being made to keep the currency bloc afloat along the way.

 

Monday, 29 October 2012

Weekly Review 10.30.2012

 



This was a record setting week! Literally 

Europe
Eurozone hit a record high debt of 90% from all 17 countries that use the single euro currency.  This is the highest level since 1999 when the EU currency was first implemented.
"The euro area economy remains stuck in a rut" said James Ashley, Sr. European economicst at RBC Capital Markets.
According to the Eurostat, five countries are in recession Greece, Spain, Italy, Portugal and Cyprus.  Many analyst expect the Eurozone to slip back into a recession next month when the official numbers are released. (recession is defined as two downward quarters of negative growth in a row)
Furthermore, PMI remains lowest in three years at 45.8  We can see this with BMW and VW, their exports have taken a hit on YoY basis. 


China
PMI- HSBC report showed Wednesday rising new orders.  3 month upward trend shows that the economy is slowly picking up.  However, this is not sustainable given US potentially falling off the cliff and the meltdown in Europe.  Nonetheless, PMI was 47.9(August)  49.2(September) and 49.8 in October.  This is still below 50 but indicates slow improvement and a moderate rebound of the worlds second largest economy.  Weak external demand and a slack job market are key factors, therefore one should expect more easing policies to secure recovery.

China's yuan reached a 19 year high against the US dollar.  Currency hit 6.2417 yuan per dollar, it has been appreciating since QE3 and the ECB bond buying plan.   HK monetary authority has injected more than $14B to stabilize Curreny.  Could this be the start of a currency war? Last weeks review we talked about Brazil's finance minister publicly scolding the US selfish actions at the IMF conference in Tokyo.   Chinese exports are sure to take a beating. 

Japan
Japan adds $9.4B to stimulus program to bump up growth as bond investors told government they were worried about delays and more spending.  Finance minister said this was necessary because Japan would run out of money if the bill was not passed.  This is only estimated to boost GDP by .1%.  Japan has the highest debt level among developed nations and has experienced 2 lost decades.  According to world renowned economists Rogoff and Reinhart  a Country with debt-to-gdp in excess of 90% is unsustainable.  Japan is at over 200%. (see book "This time is Different")

United States
Fiscal Cliff can be much worst than it is.  Many economist think every dollar of deficit reduction will subtract nearly the same amount from economic growth.  The IMF suggest 1$ could drain as much as $1.70.  With interest rates at near zero the pain will be much worse. Bernanke has acknowledged he would not be able to fully offset the pain if the economy runs into the fiscal cliff.  


The “fiscal cliff” and long-term government deficit issues are weighing heavily on the minds of finance professionals, and they do not expect business conditions to improve regardless of the results of the Nov. 6 presidential election.
Three-fourths of 949 executives who responded to a survey at the annual conference of the Association for Financial Professionals (AFP) this month reported that they believe overall economic conditions will weaken if various tax law provisions expire and mandated government spending cuts go into effect as scheduled in January 2013.
Respondents rated implementing changes to avoid the fiscal cliff as the second-most important issue for federal elected representatives to focus on after the election. The most important issue to respondents was resolving long-term government fiscal and deficit issues, identified by 63% of finance professionals in the survey.

Herman Venegas
 

Saturday, 8 September 2012

Weekly Review - Sept 8.12

India

McDonald has announced it will launch a Vegetarian Outlet in India sometime June 2013.  This will be the first vegetarian restaurant in the world!  A few other fast food restaurants are fleeing into India in attempt to capture a consumer base of 1.2Billion people.  Can you say "McDonaldization" I mean globalization. 

India released its trade balance on Monday.  Economist forecasted a deficit of -8.8Billion however their estimates were wrong.  Actual number was -15.5Billion!  I think they(economist) need to update their model.  This means Imports outgrew exports by 15.5Billion dollars.  This re-affirms our belief that India is in the process of industrialization and has a lot of growth potential. 

Europe
The dreaded Troika stepped back into Greece this week to impose more restriction.  Austerity is a dirty nine letter word for many Greeks.  The public force (police and military) successfully opposed cuts to their pay checks.  This means the ministry of Finance will look into other areas to cut…. PENSIONS are next! With unemployment almost at Spanish levels of 25% a cut to pensions will be devastating.  Old age pensioners are the bread winners for large number of unemployed.  Hundreds of retirees took to the street their signs and protested this week.



Pensioners protesting government cuts in Athens, Greece.

On a Euro wide level,  Purchasing Manufacturing Index (PMI) was less than 50 indicating again another contraction in the economy.  Managers are still bearish.  Here are more gloomy numbers to show that Europe is in a big mess. 
*Retail Sales (MoM) : Down -0.2%
*GDP(QoQ) : -0.2%

USA
Much attention to Congressional speeches this week adverted attention away from the real problem.  Unemployment is still above 8% and wont seem to go down no matter how much stimulus and tax breaks are given.  Plain and Simple, business aren’t hiring new workers.   Unemployment rate came out this week, it still remains above 8% at 8.1%(not seasonally adjusted).   Also, manufacturing index came out showing that levels are below 50 which shows a bearish outlook in business. 

Canada
As expected, interest rate remained unchanged on Wednesday.  Bank of Canada kept rates at 1%.  Furthermore, Purchasing Manufacturing Index is well above 50 at 62.5.
Canadians are doing well!  Carney stated "As long as demand for commodities are strong Canada will do well"  In other words "Expensive oil = happy Canada."

Monday, 30 July 2012

Investing amid Crisis





As the crisis lingers on, unemployment, at 11.1% in Europe, U.S. investors  moving assets from the euro zone by selling $4.1 billion more securities than they bought since 2011 - causing a flight from euros to US bonds, while Draghi reinsures that anything will be done to save the union, should you consider Europe as an investment in your portfolio?

Well let’s revisit basic Economics…

Flight to safety has caused yields to drop in some cases to negative levels- low interest rates -> lack of lending/investment -> depreciated currency -> increase in trade surplus -> increase in exports → investment in exporting companies.

Exporting companies in Europe should not be ignored, as they are less dependent on European consumers who are at the moment pulling back on any forms of consumption.  A country that takes the spotlight is Germany and its competitive technology driven export economy. As the stocks are trading at deep discounts, now is the time to look at established exporting companies.

Germany is contributing 8.7 billion euros this year to the European rescue fund, quite a hefty amount for a nation whose anti-bailout voters are criticizing Merkel’s decisions.  However, what’s even heftier is the amount of exports Germany has gained amid the crisis  - 100 billion euros!




Trade surplus has increased by 4% of GDP due to the lower currency.  This increased competitiveness is also due to the fact that Germany’s exports are shipped outside the European union unlike countries like France and Spain.

If youre not familiar with specific stocks in the German market, the easiest way to achieve exposure is through an ETF.  We recommend iShares MSCI Germany Small Cap Index Fund.  Although the ETF is comprised of small cap stock, its sector weighting is 30 % in industrials and 14% in technology stock – both competitive in Germanys export market. 

Anna Nepravishta