Showing posts with label ECB. Show all posts
Showing posts with label ECB. Show all posts

Monday, 11 March 2013

New party Anti Euro Party in Germany



Opponents of the euro in Germany have founded a new party in favor of abolishing Europe's common currency. But critics question whether the rather academic group can pack the populist punch it needs to enter parliament.
"The Alternative for Germany" - Germany's new party opposing the eurozone - is unlikely to impress Angela Merkel. The German chancellor takes pride in her policy aimed at saving Europe's monetary union. "The end of the euro would also be the end of the European Union," she has said - justification in her view for why the monetary union must be sustained.
But there is a substantial group within Germany that disagrees. In a survey conducted by the Germany weekly news magazine "Der Spiegel" in July 2012, 54 percent of interviewees said they don't believe investing vast sums of money to keep the common European currency is really worth it.
Opposition to the common currency in not reflected in the German parliament at all, says Konrad Adam. For years, he was a journalist at the center-right German daily "Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung," and has decided to start the new political party together with a handful of business experts who have worked in media and research.
The group, which calls itself Alternative for Germany, demands the dissolution of the eurozone and an open discussion of bailout strategies.
The euro is ‘destroying Europe'
Adam is frustrated about the lack of representation for euro opponents in parliament.
Konrad Adam
(c) picture-alliance/Markus C. Hurek Konrad Adam, founder of Alternative for Germany
“All of the parties in the Bundestag have effectively the same opinion when it comes to rescuing the euro,” he told DW. “The only distinction between them is how much money should be invested and when. The euro is seen as holy, and anyone with a differing opinion is either dismissed as a populist or is shamed. That is not right.”
That's what led Adam to band together with like-minded journalists and scholars, such as Bernd Lucke, who teaches economics at the University of Hamburg, to start their own party.
“When I go to vote, I want a choice, which is why we wanted to create an alternative,” Adam said.
The issue isn't exactly minor in the German political arena. Germany must contribute 21.7 billion euros ($28.2 billion) to the euro rescue fund, which is meant to prevent EU countries with financial problems from slipping into bankruptcy by providing such countries with favorable lending conditions. So far, Greece, Ireland, Portugal, Spain and Cyprus have tapped into the fund.
According to the founders of Alternative for Germany, the possibility of getting rid of the euro and stopping the payments is being ignored by German politicians. They believe the end to the common currency to be the best thing that could happen to Europe.
“We are afraid that Europe isn't benefitting from the euro, but is actually being subtly destroyed by it,” Lucke told DW.
Dissolving the eurozone, not the EU
A syrgine with a euro note in it
(c) imago Germany has pumped over 20 billion euros into rescue funds
Lucke clarifies however that while the party is against the euro, it is not against European unity. The party focuses on getting rid of the eurozone. They call for the countries to either choose between national currencies, such as the deutschmark, the franc, or the drachma, or to create smaller currency unions. Adam could envision a northern euro and a southern euro, for example
The founders of Alternative for Germany don't want to get too specific with such proposals at the moment. While they support the principle of adherence to EU treaties, the group's members also hope to see changes to EU treaties that would allow Germany and other countries legal means of exiting the eurozone. Further, the new party is calling for binding referendums that would give EU citizens more power to make decisions.
A decision on whether the party fulfils the criteria to take part in Germany's federal elections this September is expected in April. At the very latest, the party's leaders hope to take part in the European elections in 2014.
A 'dangerous' position?
Rudolf Hickel, an economist and former head of the Institute of Labor and Economics (IAW) at the University of Bremen, considers Alternative for Germany's chances for success in September's elections to be slim.
Rudolf Hickel
(c) Universität Bremen Rudolf Hickel believes calls to dissolvr the eurozone are 'dangerous'
“Normally, I'd certainly give a party like this a chance to reach five percent,” Hickel told DW, referring to the law in Germany that a political party must win at least five percent of the vote to gain parliamentary representation. “But the people behind Alternative for Germany are the best guarantee that the party won't make it into the Bundestag. They are professors and frustrated economists. If the party were headed by a populist, I'd consider them dangerous.”
Hickel does welcome an open debate about the euro rescue mechanisms, but he considers abandoning the currency bloc to be very dangerous.
“If Greece, for example, was out of the euro, it would be a permanently poor country, but would remain in the European Union,” Hickel explains. “And I can say now that, in that case, the EU would have to help with payments, or pressure would mount on Greece until it left the European Union. Then other EU countries would have to pay more. That would be an extreme burden on the European project."
That's where the founders of Alternative for Germany disagree. The party believes Germany's political elite must stop clinging to the joint currency without paying more attention to the sacrifices being made to keep the currency bloc afloat along the way.

 

Monday, 22 October 2012

Weekly Review 10.22.2012

All eyes were on the Second Presidential Debate.
Both Romney and Obama delivered strong punches tackling issues such as unemployment, oil and energy.  All said and done, Mitt Romney is in the lead in the gallop polls 52% to 45%.

Central Bankers and Government officials met up in Tokyo for the annual IMF conference.  (http://www.imf.org/external/am/2012/) The IMF lowered its GDP outlook on the global world economy.  The major theme talked about was fiscal unity among political leaders hinting towards the EU leaders.

Also, Bernanke addressed critics abroad saying stronger growth in the United States bolsters global prospects as well, countering the likes of Brazil's Finance Minister Guido Mantega who has labeled the Fed's latest stimulus effort "selfish".
Critics say the Fed's unorthodox policies weaken the U.S. dollar and boost the currencies of developing countries, hurting their ability to export.

Canada has blocked Malaysian state oil firm Petronas’ C$5.17 billion bid for gas producer Progress Energy Resources in a surprise move that could signal problems for a much larger Chinese deal in the country’s energy sector.
Canada’s announcement late on Friday, minutes before a deadline, was a blow to Petronas whose domestic oil supplies are shrinking and which has been seeking to boost its resources beyond Malaysia and volatile areas such as Sudan.
It also raises doubts over Chinese oil group CNOOC’s C$15.1 billion offer for oil producer Nexen and could weigh on other Canadian firms hoping for foreign investment to tap their vast energy reserves.
Any rejection of the CNOOC bid would likely damage trade ties Canada has been trying to build with China, underlining political sensitivity to Chinese corporate expansion in North America.
http://www.vancouversun.com/business/Canada+blocks+billion+Petronas+Progress+deal+with+video/7422103/story.html#ixzz2A4gWGYes

Google's earnings were released ahead of schedule.  The stock plummeted -$3.12.  Why? according to experts mobile has been a mixed blessing. Smartphones and tablets are bringing in new users — and the advertisers that follow them — but it makes less money on mobile ads than on desktop ads.

For a  list of companies who released earnings this week click here.   http://www.earnings.com/highlight.asp?client=cb


Saturday, 8 September 2012

Weekly Review - Sept 8.12

India

McDonald has announced it will launch a Vegetarian Outlet in India sometime June 2013.  This will be the first vegetarian restaurant in the world!  A few other fast food restaurants are fleeing into India in attempt to capture a consumer base of 1.2Billion people.  Can you say "McDonaldization" I mean globalization. 

India released its trade balance on Monday.  Economist forecasted a deficit of -8.8Billion however their estimates were wrong.  Actual number was -15.5Billion!  I think they(economist) need to update their model.  This means Imports outgrew exports by 15.5Billion dollars.  This re-affirms our belief that India is in the process of industrialization and has a lot of growth potential. 

Europe
The dreaded Troika stepped back into Greece this week to impose more restriction.  Austerity is a dirty nine letter word for many Greeks.  The public force (police and military) successfully opposed cuts to their pay checks.  This means the ministry of Finance will look into other areas to cut…. PENSIONS are next! With unemployment almost at Spanish levels of 25% a cut to pensions will be devastating.  Old age pensioners are the bread winners for large number of unemployed.  Hundreds of retirees took to the street their signs and protested this week.



Pensioners protesting government cuts in Athens, Greece.

On a Euro wide level,  Purchasing Manufacturing Index (PMI) was less than 50 indicating again another contraction in the economy.  Managers are still bearish.  Here are more gloomy numbers to show that Europe is in a big mess. 
*Retail Sales (MoM) : Down -0.2%
*GDP(QoQ) : -0.2%

USA
Much attention to Congressional speeches this week adverted attention away from the real problem.  Unemployment is still above 8% and wont seem to go down no matter how much stimulus and tax breaks are given.  Plain and Simple, business aren’t hiring new workers.   Unemployment rate came out this week, it still remains above 8% at 8.1%(not seasonally adjusted).   Also, manufacturing index came out showing that levels are below 50 which shows a bearish outlook in business. 

Canada
As expected, interest rate remained unchanged on Wednesday.  Bank of Canada kept rates at 1%.  Furthermore, Purchasing Manufacturing Index is well above 50 at 62.5.
Canadians are doing well!  Carney stated "As long as demand for commodities are strong Canada will do well"  In other words "Expensive oil = happy Canada."

Friday, 27 July 2012

Weekly Review

Gloom and Doom

Certainly this has not been a fun week for most markets around the world.  Many companies came out missing target estimates reaffirming the fact that the economy is far away from a real recovery. The UK shocked the markets when the latest GDP numbers from the Office for National Statistics showed that the economy shrank by 0.7% over the second quarter. 

USA
The US economy expanded at a rate of 1.9% the first quarter.  Numbers just came out today indicating that the economy grew at a slower pace of 1.5% for the second quarter from April to June.  The economy slowed amid weak consumer spending, government cuts and a rise in imports from foreign countries.  Weak confidence in the Euro currency has led to capital flight into the American dollar thereby pushing up its value.  With a stronger US dollar exports have become less attractive which in turn is hurting local manufacturers export their products.
Bush tax cuts are set to expire be the end of 2012 (Fiscal Cliff).  Most economist predict that if all of the 2012 tax and spending cut measures occur under current law, it would reduce the deficit but also drag down GDP by 4% or more and cause a recession next year.

EU

European Central Bank President Mario Draghi pledged on Thursday to do whatever was necessary to protect the euro zone from collapse, sending a strong signal that inflated Spanish and Italian borrowing costs were in his sights.  Spain's 10-year bond yield sank to as low as 6.92%, around 40 basis points lower.  Furthermore, the news reversed the 5 day decline of the Euro/USD.  The Euro made significant gains.




Italy also came into the spotlight as the provincial government association (UPI) warned that schools may not be able to open after the summer holidays due to planned spending cuts and local finances. These comments proceeded prime minister Mario Monti's comments last week announcing that Sicily was on the brink of default and on the same day the press stated that 10 Italian cities faced serious financial difficulties.
  
Citigroup said there’s now a 90 percent chance Greece will leave the euro in the next 12 months to 18 months.



 

China

China National Offshore Oil Corp.(CNOOC) — is a state-owned oil company.
Calgary-based oil and gas firm Nexen Inc. has agreed to be acquired by CNOOC Oil Company in a $15.1 billion US cash deal. It will pay $27.50 per Nexen share. That price makes the deal the largest foreign transaction that Beijing has ever attempted.

The New York senator, a noted opponent of China's international trade policies, told U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner that the U.S. should block the takeover of Calgary-based Nexen unless China lives up to its free trade commitment.

With stronger Canadian/Chinese trade relations and uncertainty in middle eastern oil we can expect to see more M&A activity in the Canadian energy markets.


Herman Venegas



Friday, 6 July 2012

Eurozone Crisis

"Will Greece Exit the Euro?”
"Leaving the Euro - My big fat Greek Divorce”
"Markets fall on European Debt Worries”
"European stocks and the euro rose overnight on prospects that central banks would act to boost economies.”
Source: Reuters, Bloomberg, FT, etc etc…..

Markets falling, rising overnight, uncertainty, crisis, speculations ...
Let's take a step back and question the European debt crisis and who is benefiting from these fluctuations in the market place. During various crisis central players have introduced new acts and legislation that could have not otherwise been done so unless there's a crisis, panic, defaults, downgraded ratings..

Speaking of downgrade, the European Central Bank (ECB) is not just a bank anymore, but also a credit rater! ECB will set the value of sovereign bonds and the collateral that needs to be put up by borrowers. The ECB will basically rely upon the bank's own internal assessment which will consequently make it easier for other European countries as it eases the collateral requirements for debt they need to put up.

The same situation occurred back in 2011 when the leading rating agency - S&P downgraded U.S debt and surprise, surprise: The White House publicly downplayed and objected the lowering of rating from stable to negative.

What's the goal of the central players?  One arena – one fiscal system – one currency. Utopia for controlling the money supply (sound like the Federal Reserve of the United States of America?)
Perfect opportunity to centralize control even further in the Eurozone: a crisis : Greece on the verge of default, Spain, Italy, Portugal struggling and a few days ago Cyprus asking for European help to recapitalize its second-largest bank. The European Stability Mechanism (ESM) which is the euro zone's bailout fund, will now be allowed to inject capital directly into banks, not just national governments, once again emphasizing the move towards a tighter centralized control.

This strengthened oversight and closer economic union will seem essential and very soon the only option to “save” Europe.

Conclusion : There will be no break up of the Euro...As a matter of fact, quite the opposite : a more tightly controlled union.

Gold, being a safe haven will continue to be in demand given the newly cut interest rate by 25 basis points to 0.75 and the negative real interest rate environment which major economies are operating under.


Anna Nepravishta